Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

2718

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

November 22 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 38 28 54 47
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 72 51 70 102
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 4 2 7 11
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 161 93 121 121
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 35 25 50 53
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 7 5 8 5
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 3 3 1 4
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 33 30 35 76
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 31 75 92 76
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 13 19 10 7
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 34 19 24 44
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 58 148 117 81
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 41 49 63 46
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 40 39 46 31
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 19 19 62 47

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 5 3 5 8
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 5 2 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 1 1 1 5
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 3 8 11 10
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 2 4 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 1 0 3
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 6 5 3
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 6 4 4 3
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 3 2 1 2
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 9 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.04
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.09
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.02
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.15 0.21 0.10 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.09 0.05 0.00 0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.15 0.08 0.06 0.07
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.06

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.09
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.11 0.07 0.05
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.04 0.12 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.50 0.12 0.09 0.29
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.22 0.17 0.26 0.36
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.30 0.16 0.16 0.38
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.19 0.18 0.35 0.28
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.64 0.27 0.06 0.03
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.35 0.31 0.24 0.11
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.41 0.20 0.17 0.22
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.29 0.22 0.26 0.23
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.42
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.17 0.34 0.41
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.19 0.55 0.18 0.08
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.40 0.23 0.06 0.31
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.27 0.21 0.26 0.25
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.49 0.23 0.13 0.15
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.39 0.22 0.07 0.32
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.03 0.82 0.10

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.45 0.14 0.12 0.29
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.23 0.18 0.25 0.34
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.29 0.18 0.18 0.35
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.20 0.19 0.33 0.27
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.56 0.27 0.10 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.33 0.29 0.24 0.14
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.37 0.21 0.18 0.23
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.28 0.23 0.26 0.24
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.25 0.20 0.16 0.39
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.11 0.19 0.32 0.38
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.20 0.49 0.19 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.37 0.23 0.10 0.30
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.27 0.22 0.26 0.25
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.45 0.23 0.15 0.17
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.36 0.22 0.10 0.31
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.09 0.08 0.70 0.13

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.03, 0.10) (0.00, 0.08) (0.01, 0.07) (0.02, 0.10)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.10) (0.02, 0.11) (0.03, 0.11) (0.04, 0.11)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.15) (0.01, 0.13) (0.01, 0.14) (0.02, 0.18)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.14) (0.02, 0.18) (0.02, 0.15)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.07) (0.01, 0.06) (0.00, 0.04) (0.00, 0.04)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.11) (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.08)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.13) (0.01, 0.12) (0.00, 0.12) (0.01, 0.13)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.13) (0.01, 0.15) (0.01, 0.13)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.10) (0.01, 0.09) (0.03, 0.11)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.12) (0.05, 0.14) (0.06, 0.16) (0.06, 0.17)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.04, 0.14) (0.05, 0.21) (0.02, 0.16) (0.01, 0.12)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.12) (0.02, 0.12) (0.00, 0.08) (0.03, 0.12)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.08) (0.02, 0.07) (0.02, 0.08) (0.02, 0.08)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.05, 0.15) (0.03, 0.13) (0.03, 0.11) (0.03, 0.12)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.11) (0.02, 0.11) (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.12)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.10) (0.00, 0.09) (0.06, 0.18) (0.03, 0.11)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.014, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.005. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date